US: The transition begins, what should we expect from the Biden administration?

By Luis Meiners

The official transition to the Biden administration has begun and some of the names of his cabinet picks have already been announced. Predictably, Trump’s legal challenges to the election results have been unsuccessful, and authorities in key states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada have certified the election results. The General Services Administration has begun the formal transition process. What can we expect from the new government?

Cabinet picks

The announcement of the first members of Biden’s cabinet clearly marks the orientation of his government: to restore the legitimacy of the system and the imperialist hegemony. It is no coincidence that the appointments began by positions in charge of national security and foreign policy. The conference to present the nominees was an attempt to show a clear departure from Trump’s policies. A central theme was the need to move away from the “isolationist” approach and back to cooperation with allies. The media highlighted the nomination of the first woman as head of National Intelligence, Avril Haines, and the first Latino and immigrant as head of Homeland Security, Alejandro Mayorkas.

Beyond the rhetoric of renovation, the list of nominees is composed mainly of career professionals who were part of the Obama administration, with strong ties to the establishment. Standing out among them is Antony Blinken, appointed as Secretary of State, a position that oversees foreign policy. As staff director for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, chaired by Biden, he played an important role in supporting the invasion of Iraq. He then was a member of the Obama administration, during which he supported the military intervention in Libya. Later, he founded the consulting firm WestExec advisors with ties to the defense industry. In this latest “venture” he was associated with Michèle Flournoy, whose name figures prominently as an option for the Secretary of Defense.

Another clear case is that of Janet Yellen nominated as Treasury Secretary, who was in charge of the Federal Reserve during Obama’s second term. In the words of economist Michael Roberts, “Yellen is a perfect representative exponent of current mainstream economic policy: ie governments must spend now to ameliorate the pandemic slump; but soon start pulling back on the reins to control deficits and debt”. Her nomination, along with the other names released, has been received with rising stocks by the market.

Pandemic and crisis

The transition has started in a conjuncture marked by the deepening of the pandemic crisis. The news about advances in the vaccines for Covid19 has not overshadowed the fact that the United States is in the third wave of infections nationwide. Unlike the first and second waves, which were relatively circumscribed to different regions, the current one has had a more general impact throughout the country. States that were at the epicenter of the wave in the Spring but then had a relatively low and stable level of cases during the Summer, as is the case of New York, are experiencing accelerated growth in cases in recent weeks. Case numbers are at the highest levels since the start of the pandemic, with more 150 thousand a day. Everything seems to indicate that the situation will get worse before the arrival of the vaccine.

In this context, the economic recovery of the third quarter is not going to be repeated in the final stretch of the year. The new wave of infections is slowing the pace of economic recovery. Overall, the US economy is estimated to fall 3.5% in 2020. The October report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics admits that, although the level of unemployment has been falling from its peak in April, its current level is at least double that of February 2020. The prospect of a fiscal crisis due to a marked drop in public revenues completes the picture. According to a study by the Urban Institute, a survey of 44 states shows a $31 billion drop in revenue between March and August 2020 compared to the same period last year. Governments, led by both Republicans and Democrats, have responded with cuts in social service budgets, exacerbating the consequences of the crisis.

This is the conjuncture in which the new administration will take office on January 20. All this within the more general framework of a profound crisis of the political regime, of the model of accumulation and of imperialist hegemony.

A government with structural weaknesses

We have seen that the political orientation of the Biden administration can be synthesized as a return to pre 2016 conditions, a return to “normal” yearned by the establishment. However, carrying out this program will not be easy. Not only because of short-term difficulties and structural conditions, but because of the new government’s own weaknesses.

First of all, it will be a divided government. The final composition of the Senate depends on two run-off elections. The Democrats need to win both to match the 50 seats held by the Republicans, thus making Vice President-elect Kamala Harris the tiebreaker. This does not seem to be the most likely outcome. But even if they did pull it off, Amy Coney Barret’s confirmation to the Supreme Court has consolidated a conservative majority with the ability to overturn legislation.

Simultaneously, as the election results demonstrated, “Trumpism” is a political actor that will remain active. This will likely include a right-wing opposition to the government with street presence. A repetition, in greater magnitude and unified behind a political leadership, of the “Tea Party” protests in 2009 against the Obama administration. Within this universe there are also far-right groups, white supremacists, with fascist tendencies.

But the right-wing opposition in the streets and the institutional obstacles that the Republican Party can put up are not the only source of weakness for the new government. The historic anti-racist rebellion that peaked in the summer was not defeated, although some of its energy was channeled into elections. But the presence of millions on the streets facing off against both Trump and Democratic governors and mayors will have a lasting effect.

In this picture, there is great potential for resistance to the cuts and austerity measures promoted by the Biden administration or state and local governments. This can also happen in workplaces, such as the strikes at the start of the pandemic.

The Left faces a huge challenge and opportunities. In this situation a fundamental task for the Left is to appear as an independent force, confronting both the Biden government and the right. Failing to do this will leave the right as the only visible opposition. This will not only embolden those forces, but also play into the lesser evil script of the Democrats. To accomplish this task it is essential to redirect efforts towards political independence and struggles.