Belarus: repression, social unrest and uncertain future

By Kazimierz Kryzhich

The dictatorship represses society in general and workers’ organizations in particular. The repression and propaganda apparatus multiplies false accusations of “terrorism” and criminal cases. Lukashenko supports Putin and could drag the country into direct intervention in the war against Ukraine. The economic situation worsens day by day. With the fear of persecution and the deterioration of living conditions, social discontent grows, configuring an uncertain future.

Another horde of destruction of democratic freedoms on a large scale is underway, with the liquidation of Trade Unions. We refer to the Free Trade Union of Metalworkers, the Independent Trade Union of Miners, Chemists, Electrical Engineers, Transport Workers, Builders and Other Workers of Belarus, the Trade Union of Workers of the Radio-Electronic Industry of Belarus, the Free Trade Union of Belarus, as well as the “Belarusian Congress of Democratic Trade Unions” trade union association.

A direct attack on the labor movement

The Supreme Court ruled that “instead of protecting the labor and socioeconomic rights” of union members, the leaders and members of these organizations “took an active part in destructive activities and massive events that violate public order, with massive production of information with extremist content. The measures aim to prevent “illegal strikes,” and an “escalation in society.” Union activists who hold meetings of the union’s administrative leadership are subject to criminal charges.

Social life is subject to total repression

Labor collectives of all media, theaters and museums, kindergartens, schools and universities, polyclinics and hospitals, scientific institutions, industrial and agricultural companies have been purged of dissidents and citizens disloyal to the dictatorship. As of August 23, 1301 people have been identified and some 7000 people are in custody, awaiting trial and sentencing.

False accusations and persecution on social media

The repressive machinery spares no one: neither minors, nor the elderly, nor mothers of many children, nor cancer patients. The vast majority of trials are held behind closed doors, the most severe articles of the penal code are applied on the defendants, such as “treason,” “extremism,” “terrorism” and others. For a simple “like” on social networks, you can suffer several years in a prison camp, not to mention posts, reposts or participation in protests and their organization.

With the complicity of the media

Once again, as in the days of Stalinism, the country is involved in a wave of political denunciations and state terrorism. Almost every day, the pro-government media reports on new arrests. The detainees are subjected to physical torture and psychological abuse, they are forced to publicly repent before a video camera, admitting their complicity in crimes they did not commit. These videos are broadcast on all television channels, where the regime’s propagandists openly call for the creation of concentration camps and the physical destruction of “enemies of the people.”

Repression to avoid popular actions

This inappropriate cruelty and sadism of the authorities can be explained mainly by the fear of popular actions for the most serious crimes committed by the dictatorship since August 2020 against the Belarusian people. But the stronger and more ruthlessly the repressive regime operates, the more difficult it is for the state to maintain real economic indicators at the level necessary for the peace of the population.

The economic crisis worsens

The permanent wave of politically motivated dismissals and the mass exodus from the country of the most competent specialists (laborers, engineers, scientists, doctors, university professors and others) have already caused a defective work by many companies in the country, a sharp deterioration in the quality of medical care and education, the reduction of many social projects and the increase in the prices of food, medicine, public services and the scarcity of basic products. Against the background of Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine and the imposed sanctions, the economic situation is rapidly deteriorating.

A puppet dictator dependent on the Kremlin

At the same time, the population’s distrust of the possibility of direct participation by Belarus in the war against Ukraine is growing. As much as Lukashenko denies his complicity in this bloodshed and swore that Belarusian soldiers would never cross the border into Ukraine, his words have no credibility. So far, the Belarusian army is not involved in the hostilities on the Ukrainian front, but the Belarusian dictator provides the Russian aggressor with airfields, training camps, airspace and transportation routes. The risk of being drawn into military aggression against Ukraine remains quite high for Belarus.

Growing discontent, uncertain future

It is almost impossible to predict how events will unfold. Society is still in a state of shock at what is happening and practically paralyzed by the constant intimidation of the dictatorial regime. These conditions make organized struggle extremely difficult; all legal centers of civil interaction have been destroyed. However, general discontent is growing, which sooner or later will undoubtedly give rise to a violent confrontation and will bury the dictatorship. So it has always been and so it will be.