Brazil: Elections and conclusions. Lula won, without avoiding a second round

The Brazilian elections took place on October 2. They were followed with expectation internationally by governments like Argentina’s and the so-called progressives. But also by popular and left-wing sectors, given the possibility of defeating the fascist Bolsonaro, a task that remains on the table. The first reflections on the election…

By Francisco Torres

The election in the South American giant was framed by an economic crisis with historic increases in the levels of unemployment, poverty and hunger. Brazilians voted to elect president, governors and also federal and state legislators. The presidential election was won by Lula, although by a 5.23% difference, well below the 14% polls had shown.

An election with high polarization

Lula received 48.43% with 57,259,405 votes, while Bolsonaro rose to 43.2% with 51,072,234 votes, when the polls had given him 30%. Since neithre exceeded 50%, there will be a ballotage on October 30. If these figures are compared with those of 2018, Bolsonaro obtained 1.7 million more votes than then, while the front put together by Lula and the PT (Workers’ Party) added 10 million more.

Despite the polarization of these two candidacies that concentrated 91.6% of the votes cast, there was a 20.95% abstention rate. Almost 33 million did not vote, nonetheless a similar percentage to the last election. The other 9 candidates shared the remaining 8.4% of cast votes, although two of them, Simone Tebet (4.16%) and Ciro Gomes (3.04%), gathered 7.2%. The broad front formed by Lula against Bolsonaro has sectors of the traditional Brazilian right as protagonists, like “tucano” Geraldo Alckmin, who is candidate to vice president. He was twice governor of São Paulo for the PSDB (Brazilian Social Democratic Party), and is a conservative Catholic linked to the Opus Dei. He harshly repressed land occupations, mobilizations against the increase in transportation and teacher strikes. He applied neoliberal recipes, dismantled public healthcare, education and social assistance services, and promoted privatization.

The former neoliberal president, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, leader of the PSDB who was Lula’s traditional rival, is also part of this front, in addition to figures like Henrique Meirelles, businessman and conservative politician, who was Minister of Finance of the unpopular and austerity driven Temer government.

The abandonment by Lula and the leadership of the PT of the working class and socialist bases that gave rise to them, ended up turning the PT into a pillar party of the bourgeois regime, after years of reconciling with the bosses’ forces and governing for the rich. For this reason, as Alejandro Bodart, leader of the MST-FIT Unidad and coordinator of the ISL, said: “if during his administrations he did not apply the neoliberal plans requested by the big Brazilian bourgeoisie and the United States, Bolsonaro would not have emerged and today there would be no ballotage.”

The election seems to state that Bolsonarism is here to stay. Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) grew more than the PT in congressional votes. It became the largest force in the Senate, while in the Chamber of Deputies, combining all its parties, the right has 273 deputies and the center-left 138. The PL rose from 76 to 99 deputies and the PT went from 56 to 68.

The results of the left

All this shift towards alliances with right-wing sectors to “beat the right” sank figures like Marcelo Freixo in Rio de Janeiro. There, Bolsonarist Cláudio Castro won with 58.67%, while Freixo was far behind, with 27.38%. Therefore, Castro will continue to lead the third most populous district in Brazil.

Freixo was one of the leaders of the PSOL (Socialism and Freedom Party), but in 2021 he joined the PSB (Brazilian Socialist Party) to put together a broad front to defeat Bolsonaro in his hometown that included bourgeois parties and coup plotters. But it ended up failing. It was the most emblematic case of turning to the right, abandoning the historical program that he had defended with the PSOL, such as the struggle against the militias, police violence and repression, among other aspects.

The PSOL, which emerged as the expression of a radical left that does not renounce the class based, anti-capitalist and socialist project, was put to the test at this juncture. The majority of the party leadership opted for a policy of liquidation of the PSOL of its origins. To change its independent and socialist project for that of class conciliation, by deciding not to present its own candidacies and support Lula-Alckmin, as well as the governorships and other candidacies.

In this context, the PSOL, which had 8 federal deputies, now has 12, at the cost of abandoning its program. The former PSOL presidential candidate in 2018, Guilherme Boulos, was the most voted deputy in São Paulo with 1,001,472 votes. While the MES (Movement of the Socialist Left) was able to elect 2 deputies: Sâmia Bomfim in São Paulo and Fernanda Melchionna in Rio Grande do Sul, while it previously had 3. Glauber Braga was elected in Rio de Janeiro, being one of the 4 federal deputies elected in that state.

The forces of the left were not able to unite and conform a front in the face of the polarization, thus obtaining marginal results. The main responsibility lies with the PSTU (United Socialist Workers Party) as it does not have any policy to avoid this division. It came in penultimate place with the worst election on the left, attaining just 0.02% and 25,625 votes with Vera Lúcia Salgado. The PCB (Brazilian Communist Party) also finnished with very few votes, with 0.04% and 45,620 votes, and the Popular Unity with 0.05%.

Within the PSOL, our comrades of the Liaison Committee – Socialist Struggle and Socialist Alternative, members of the ISL, International Socialist League, presented candidacies in 5 states. Despite receiving miserable sums from the vast Electoral Fund received by the PSOL, an important campaign was carried out, which has allowed us to expand our influence, overcome previous figures and advance in our construction.

First conclusions of assesment and tasks

The results seem to show that the economic crisis, rising hunger, inflation, unemployment and other social setbacks are not perceived by almost 50% of the population as Bolsonaro’s responsibility.

The 12 years of PT governments caused great disappointment and rupture of the masses with their leadership, a product of having governed at the service of the richest 1%, while 99% of the population saw their living conditions worsen, year after year.

They also confirm that the PT never recovered from the crisis that began in 2013, despite Lula appearing as the best option to confront Bolsonaro. Due to the absence of a figure, party or sector of the left with influence in the masses, it capitalizes as the “lesser evil” against the fatality of Bolsonarism and gathers the support of almost 50% of the population.

That broad front with Lula and Alckmin, which the PSOL joined due to the liquidationist policy of the majority leadership, focused on defending democratic gains, centered on preserving the bourgeois democratic regime (with its rigged elections, the Federal Supreme Court and its powers, its justice, corruption and democracy for the rich).

Without proposing any break with the discredited institutions before large sectors or raising an economic program that would respond to the poor living conditions of the masses; the “Lula-lá” chant is not enough to finish Bolsonaro off.

Bolsonarism, as a radical expression of the right, will not be defeated with broad fronts or popular front projects. After years of Bolsonarist austerity, delivery and repression, the policies of class conciliation are not going, with a program at the service of business owners, banks and agribusiness like Lula’s. Without expressing radical solutions in favor of 99% of the population, these projects do not serve to defeat Bolsonaro. On the contrary, they strengthen him.

Together with the ISL LS-AS Liaison Committee in Brazil, the broadest mobilization should be called for. To recover the streets like in 2018 with #EleNão or in 2020 with the great marches for #ForaBolsonaro.

In turn, at this weekend’s meeting, the position on the ballotage will be determined as well as the unification congress that is planned for the coming months. In the perspective of building and strengthening a class based, anti-capitalist, revolutionary, socialist and internationalist political project to allow us to truly transform everything.