By Ali Hammoud
The presidential and governmental vacuum in Lebanon continues in the face of the loss of prominence of local forces in the presidential elections, in favor of regional and international forces that have always had a major impact on Lebanese domestic politics.
Since the country’s independence in 1943, these forces have played decisive roles in the election of the president, who represents the convergence of interests and dynamics of these regional geopolitical powers. After independence, Britain and France shared influence in Lebanon but they soon lost their exclusivity when regional and international actors entered the scene.
France is currently back to its ominous regime-saving role through its repeated initiatives, just as it intervened after the August 4, 2020 explosion and brought the participants of the political conflict together at President Macron’s table and cooled the anger of the Lebanese. Nowadays, he is here organizing a meeting of five countries – the United States, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt and France – to present an initiative for an electoral exit, an intervention that we reject.
Among the political parties of the Lebanese ruling system and close to the Syrian regime is former minister Suleiman Franjieh, candidate of what in Lebanon is called sectarian duo or Shiite duo, i.e. Hezbollah and the Amal Movement. He is working to trade with the countries of the region and obtain Saudi approval in exchange for guarantees to protect the political interests of the Gulf States in Lebanon, especially after the Saudi-Iranian reconciliation and the end of the rift between the two countries.
– This political impasse between the regime parties and their supporters is accompanied by an escalating and worsening economic collapse. The dollar exchange rate reached the £100,000 threshold when three years ago it was £1,500. There is also a crushing collapse in wages, along with a collapse in the value of savings and small household assets.
– The effects of this crisis hit the living conditions of the working class and the unemployed. In addition, basic needs such as food and health security, education and basic services such as electricity, water and transportation are not being met. All this increases the poverty rate of Lebanese families.
– The cost of food in the family budget increased by 7,883%: what you used to buy for one thousand pounds now costs 78 thousand. The cost of transportation, which drains an important part of the consumption budget due to the lack of shared public transportation, grew by 5,615%: what used to cost two thousand pounds now costs 112 thousand. The cost of clothes and shoes went up by 7,350%, health by 1,761%, housing services by 1,977% and education by 451%.
– All these huge price increases contrast with a small increase in salaries, which does not exceed 385%. However, the actual value of wages has decreased by a larger percentage, as the Lebanese economy is highly dollarized. Salaries decreased from 450 to 28 dollars per month.
The political struggle between the parties of the regime is linked to authoritarian positions while they dispute hegemony and the plundering of public funds. Today’s political division does not refer to different reform projects or whether the cost of the collapse will be paid by this or that sector. The economic projects of both sides of the political dispute do not differ from each other. They have been drawn up by the same author: the Association of Banks.
Nowadays, Lebanese society is fragmenting and what is left of the state is losing its ability to maintain its central authority. Signals have begun to establish “self-defense” groups in the regions. This is no longer limited to Hezbollah and its areas of control, but has begun to spread to new areas such as Achrafieh, where Soldiers of God groups are active, and Zouk Mikael, where Night Watch groups, both Christian, are active. We hear news of new regional groups and boundaries set by municipalities or sectarian religious parties every week.
There are also waves of instigation against Syrian refugees and calls for their forced deportation, which means handing over tens of thousands of opposition members to the Syrian regime and condemning them to death. Lebanon is currently living through a very difficult stage in its history, as it has accumulated political, security, economic and social issues. Under the existing capitalist system, there are no viable solutions. The solution to the crisis and collapse is paving the way for a new system: socialism.