By Luis Meiners
In the first hours of Wednesday and several hours after the polls have closed, it is still not possible to determine the outcome of the presidential elections in the United States. The Democrats were unable to materialize a landslide that would allow them to emerge victorious on election night. With the ghost of 2016 weighing on their shoulders, the path to a Biden victory remains open but the final outcome may take several days.
The results
In the final stretch to the elections, polls showed open battles in traditionally Republican states like Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and even Texas. If Biden succeeded in winning any of these, the chance of a Trump win was greatly reduced and the race could close on Tuesday night itself. However, that did not happen. Florida and Texas went to Trump, and both in North Carolina and Georgia the result was too close to call with an advantage for Trump, although a large number of votes from cities with a clear Democratic majority such as Atlanta had not yet been counted.
In the face of this scenario, all eyes turned to Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The first of these states is the only one of those won by Trump in 2016 in which Biden is in a clear lead. The remaining three are part of the “Blue Wall”, traditionally Democratic states that Trump won in 2016. All of them still have many votes to count. Trump leads all three, but most of the remaining votes are from big cities, like Philadelphia in Pennsylvania, where Biden has a considerable advantage. The electoral fight will most likely be reduced to the vote coming in from these three states.
The House of Representatives and the Senate were also in play. Democrats were betting to hold the former and flip the latter. They will certainly hold their majority in congress, but they will not be able to flip the Senate.
Perspectives
The uncertainty surrounding the electoral result may last for several days. In the weeks leading up to the elections, Trump and the Republican Party deployed strong judicial pressure on the electoral process, a trend that is likely to deepen in the coming hours and days. Trump has already expressed that the result should be called on election night. For his part, Biden expressed that he is confident that the final result will give him a victory. Adding to the uncertainty of the result is the possibility of legal disputes. This might come together with increased polarization in the streets.
All this expresses a deep crisis in the political regime. Once the global electoral results are in and it is possible to compare the numbers with previous elections a more detailed analysis will be possible. But one element stands out: the Democratic Party has failed to generate enough enthusiasm to achieve a clear victory, even against a rival like Trump who is repudiated by broad sections of the mass movement.
On the other hand, it reveals once again the deeply undemocratic character of the regime. Again, a candidate who loses the popular vote can be elected president by the Electoral College. Added to this are innumerable maneuvers to suppress electoral participation, mainly of sectors of the working class, Blacks and Latinxs, and also legal maneuvers to avoid, hinder and reduce the count of electoral ballots sent by mail. All this underscores the immediate need to organize the struggle for democratic demands.
Both elements reaffirm the need to break with the two-party system, and build a political alternative independent of the two parties of capital. The Democratic Party has shown once again that it is only a vehicle for frustrations.