By Luis Meiners
On the afternoon of Wednesday, November 4, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party spoke in a more triumphalist tone, expressing confidence that he will emerge as victor once all the votes are counted. Although the final result is still uncertain, the balance seems to tip for Biden. Congress would remain divided with a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives and a Republican majority in the Senate.
The current numbers
Voter turnout has been the highest in the last 100 years, although almost a third of the electorate did not vote. Biden obtained more than 70 million votes, and surpasses Trump by around 3 million votes. The results that were called in the course of the day confirmed the triumph of Biden in Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona, states that Trump had won in 2016.
The states of Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia remain to be defined. If Biden wins the first, where he has a slight advantage, he would reach the 270 votes needed to win the election in the Electoral College. This way the democrats would not depend on any of the other three states, where Trump has the lead up to now. Biden would avoid having to depend on the outcome of Pennsylvania, a state upon which hundreds of lawyers have already descended and in which the dispute may end up being resolved in the courts. Nevada is expected to announce the results Thursday morning.
Perspectives
Depending on these results the dispute could be resolved in the next few days, or stretched and turned towards the courts. Trump actively seeks this last alternative, which must clearly be rejected. He lashed out on twitter and has made moves toward a legal battle. But his chances seem to be shrinking. Even some Republicans have distanced themselves from this.
The possibility of a Biden win coupled with a Republican Senate victory was welcomed by markets, which registered gains after some volatility. This is no accident. Already during the campaign the Democratic candidate had garnered support from Wall Street and the military apparatus. At present he represents a safer bet for the ruling class, in a context marked by growing global instability accelerated by the pandemic. In a world in crisis, Biden promises to restore the legitimacy of the imperialist state, both domestically and internationally. And his record as a champion of neoliberalism during his nearly four decades as a senator and later as vice president provides that reinsurance.
This task will not be easy. The election confirmed the enormous social polarization that exists in the United States. And it also showed the cracks and the crisis of the political regime. These will not be closed due to the electoral result, whatever it may be. We cannot forget that the elections were preceded by a historic rebellion, and that the country continues to be mired in an economic and health crisis that has no prospect of rapid resolution. The votes obtained by Trump also reflect that the right is an actor that is here to stay, and that will try to win the streets and present itself as the main opposition if a Biden victory is confirmed. If this scenario occurs, it will be essential to avoid any “honeymoon” with the new government, and continue the path marked by this year’s historic rebellion.