The elections of October 22 passed and they left important news. Changes of position with Milei taking a blow, Massa taking advantage of the moment and a notorious failure of Together for Change that puts them on the verge of breaking up. Furthermore, the consolidation of the space of the Left Front that obtained new parliamentary conquests. There is also a ballotage coming, to which the left has to respond correctly. Preparing for a country with harsher austerity and agreements with the IMF that is on the near horizon.
By Sergio García, MST leader and member of the national board of the FIT Unidad
When the first results began to arrive on Sunday night, it began to become evident that something had happened outside of what was predicted by the major pollsters. Milei, self-perceived as a “Lion”, ended up being defeated, something that was outside all immediate predictions and plans. In his bunker, they couldn’t believe it. In just three weeks, they went from agitating the possibility of winning in the first round to finishing second and having to go to a runoff, starting six points behind Massa.
How could this happen?
With obvious dismay, surely his cadres, the libertarian apparatus and Milei himself will have asked themselves this on Sunday night. Everything has a political explanation. They are not coincidences or unintelligible changes in the population. The result is the reflection of a country marked by fire against dictatorships, repression, denialism, anti-rights and attacks on public services.
In the last month, with the primary victory on their shoulders, Milei and his people felt empowered to go further and say everything they think and propose. Overly confident that their victory was irreversible, they overspoke. Privatizing rivers, the sea, denying the 30,000 dissapeared, encouraging runs against the peso, privatizing trains and other brutalities. They believed their electoral rise had no limit, but they were wrong.
An important segment of the population, thousands of workers and young people, decided to put a stop to it. This can only be understood if we start from understanding that our country has been marked in the last forty years by historical democratic and social struggles. The weight of that history was once again felt. It appeared as a democratic reserve of people that do not want a denialist and anti-rights future in the Casa Rosada. At the same time, that vote has the contradiction that it favors Massa, an austerity politician, an ally of the IMF and the White House. And it is an example that in our country, any far-right project will find resistance in large swaths of the population. It is a fact that we knew could be expressed, and that had an obvious example this past Sunday.
Massa capitalizes on the fear of Milei
What has been said above is the necessary framework to understand why the official candidate received 36% of the votes, growing by around 3 million. Different journalists wondered how it could be that a minister with high inflation, a dollar at more than 1,000 pesos, increasing poverty, with Insaurralde’s yacht scandle, could grow in votes and win. And the answer is political and not economic. It is a vote of a large swath against Milei and not centrally supporting Massa.
There are thousands and thousands of workers and young people who are critical of the government, who cannot make ends meet, who struggle to buy food, to be able to study. There are thousands who criticize its agreement with the IMF. Even part of the progressive social base that Union for the Homeland has, criticized its friendly relationship with the red circle. Until Sunday, all of this put Massa in a very difficult situation. However, and as we said before, the need of a population segment to stop Milei came into play, they took Massa as the candidate with the best chance of beating him and there they put their vote. Added to this were Massa’s latest measures such as the VAT refund on food and changes in the salary tax, which were somewhat useful electorally among some sectors.
Massa’s victory has nothing to do with a blank check and quite a bit of voting with noses covered. A vote that, more than supporting him, rejects his main opponent. It was as if, in the reasoning of a sector, what happened on Sunday had already been a runoff, they wanted to make it clear that “Milei no.” Which is not directly a yes to Massa or support for what he is doing and what he will do. It is a concrete vote, a kind of barrier against far-right denialism. Apart from that, thousands of those same voters will tomorrow criticize Massa and important sectors will even confront him in the street, due to his austerity measures and his agreement with the IMF. No vote against Milei is going to change that perspective of confrontation in the class struggle.
The final debacle of Together for Change?
Patricia Bullrich, the third candidate in discordance, did the impossible last month to get out of the third place that the polls gave her. She couldn’t do it. Her task became precisely impossible. She was never able to reverse the fact that Milei got ahead of her in the primaries, taking part of her own social base. The Macrist right-wing candidate took on the failure of Macri’s previous government, which is part of the frustration of millions with the parties that have governed. She found Macri himself praising Milei throughout the first part of the campaign; she was unable to get Larreta’s support except only in a forced photo a few days before the elections.
Being already right-wing and with a recognized repressive trajectory as a civil servant, in the end she wanted to strengthen that perception of being a strong woman to establish order, as the last way to break Milei’s votes. She did not succeed, and she was trapped in a strong failure. The faces in her bunker say it all. The shock of this defeat leaves a trail of seriously injured people. Together for Change navigates these days between reproaches, crossed attacks between the UCR and the PRO, and more than one will quietly begin to pack their bags looking for new horizons. As things stand, the bourgeois invention of assembling a new right-wing force around Macri years ago is now walking on the edge of the cliff. And this is not only a problem for the PRO but for the bourgeois regime that fails to stabilize parties that alternate with any solidity.
Electoral trends
Meanwhile, and as a byproduct of Bullrich and Milei’s failure, it was Schiaretti who did good business, and as a voice of federal Peronism more located on the right, he advanced to almost 7%. Leaving his space as something more than necessary for the runoff. Soon, Massa and Milei will begin to seduce him.
Likewise, even considering that Milei and Bullrich were defeated for different reasons this Sunday, October 22, in an in-depth analysis of the elections, we cannot ignore saying that, overall, an electoral shift to the right continues. Let’s consider that the sum of Milei, Bullrich and Schiaretti amounts to just over 60% of the voters. Faced with this, the vote for Massa represented something contradictory, although he is part of a wing located on the right within the PJ. In this case, the vote for Union for the Homeland was a more contradictory vote, which, as we said, reflected healthy democratic reserves of workers and young people against Milei’s extreme right, combined with what the vote contributes to, and generally reflects, a policy and structure of governors and the political-union apparatus of the PJ that is the mainstay of the country’s bourgeois regime. While the anti-capitalist and socialist left expressed in the FIT-U acheived close to 3% of the votes, and a segment of the population decided not to vote.
This shows not only the failure of progressivism in the government, which fuels right-wing searches in important segments. But also that, although there were important social struggles, there were no major national or generalized struggles or overpowering of the union bureaucracy, which played the sinister role of endorsing and letting the austerity advance throughout the entire Peronist mandate. These objective causes acted in the last period of the country. And they are combined, on a subjective level, with the limits of the Left Front, which continues to be a real and important political actor, but fails to take a leap forward in quality or appear as an alternative to millions, due to not breaking with a aolely electoral format, nor dare to call on sympathizers, intellectuals and social, labor and popular leaders who vote and support us, to actually participate in our front. A debate that we will inevitably resume in the face of the new government that emerges in November.
The vote of the Left Front
In the context of a very complex presidential election, our front managed to consolidate a respectable swath of voters, more than 700,000 for president and more than 800,000 for legislative positions. It managed to grow a little in relation to the primaries and, in this way, once again consolidate an important swath of voters. That is to say, there are thousands of workers and young people who overcome all types of campaigns against the left and all the maneuvers of the regime in the middle of the elections, and still decide to vote for the FIT-U. What the Left Front does not achieve is taking a big leap, nor does it appear as an alternative to swathes of the masses. That is its main political limit.
Among the positive things to highlight, the vote allowed the political achievement of winning a new seat in the National Congress, from the province of Buenos Aires, which Christian Castillo will occupy, and when it is our turn to rotate into that seat, representing our party will be Fernando Sacarelo, representative of Retirees of the Left. And in the capital of the country, we also managed to enter the legislature with more than 5% of the votes. There, our comrade Cele Fierro headed the list, and will assume her deputy seat on December 10, which is an achievement for the front and a leap for our party. Cele will confront, in the Legislature and on the street, all the agreements of the Macri administration with the liberfachos. And she will be part of the political struggle against the new national government that will be elected and one of the main representatives of our party on what the left and the FIT-U have to do in the new stage that is opening.
As she already expressed on Sunday night from the bunker: “Entering the Legislature is a joy, a political triumph and a responsibility for our front. Furthermore, throughout the country the vote for FIT-U was consolidated, thousands of workers and young people have voted in our direction, resisting the pressures of the ‘lesser evil’ and denouncing Milei’s extreme right. Now, for the country that is coming, we need a Left Front Unity that transcends the electoral, that organizes the everyday struggles, that summons workers, young people, women and independents who accompany us. It is time to move forward as a political alternative, not only to defend social rights and confront the IMF, but to go for fundamental changes: for a workers’ government and socialism.”
Ballotage and after
We are now heading towards a runoff in conditions different from those forseen. No longer with a Milei who comes from having won, but from having lost. In his crisis, he began to launch absurd proposals, such as offering the left a Ministry of Human Capital. The proposal falls within the margins of ridicule. As a by-product of the blow he received, the libertarian does not know how to stand upright… and is delirious. There is almost no need to clarify the obvious: we are not even going around the corner with this nefarious character.
In any case, the Left Front and our party have to decide what position to take before the November 19 runoff. From the MST, we have proposed to our FIT-U colleagues that we meet to discuss the issue in depth, since we believe it is essential that we have a common position to express publicly. And in our case, this Friday, we will also have a national leadership meeting of our party to address the matter. Because three issues are clear from the start: that we have to debate collectively and democratically decide what to do. That in no way are we going to vote for Milei, our NO to this far-right is overwhelming. And although Milei does not have the same project as Massa, the later is also an expression of more austerity and submission to the IMF; therefore we have no political commitment or agreement with his project. Based on these considerations, we will debate and determine our position regarding the runoff. Calling to do what, we believe, is best for the working class and youth. And we will do so, also preparing for the country that comes after December. Where all the economic and political contradictions and tensions will increase. Where there will be new attacks on achievements and the ongoing crisis will expect millions of working families to continue paying for it. Faced with this scenario and perspective, which will have more social struggles in the streets, our strategy is to call to strengthen the anti-capitalist and socialist left, the Left Front, causing the necessary changes so that it improves and overcomes itself. And inviting thousands of supporters and friends to join us in the MST to fight all these political battles together. Great challenges are coming for the left. For that, we prepare in all the country.