The US pursuit of a deal with Iran reflects the difficulties it has in defeating the aggressor country, which also affects the State of Israel. By various means, Trump and Netanyahu are “fleeing forward” with more threats, violence and expansionism to cushion the political impact and its eventual consequences. Lebanon is already suffering and Cuba could be next. It is necessary to deepen solidarity with the peoples of Palestine, Lebanon and Iran in the perspective of a strategic way out for the Middle East.
By Ruben Tzanoff
Cease fire with fire
The initial cease-fire agreement between the US and Iran was initialed on April 8 with the mediation of the government of Pakistan for a period of 14 days. At the expiration of the period there was a provisional and indefinite extension by the US side to keep diplomatic channels open.
Imperialism violated the truce with attacks on missile sites and ships, and to shoot down drones, which was justified as carrying out actions in “self-defense”. They overlooked the small detail that they are attacking an independent country located about 10,000 km from Washington. Iran responded by attacking a base in Kuwait with drones.
The truth is that the attacks and counterattacks in southern Iran and the mutual threats to extend the war never ceased. This is how they reached the current stage of negotiations.
Draft agreement, not yet approved
During the last few days, US imperialism tried to enlist the support of Chinese imperialism to solve its problems in Iran, but has not succeeded, at least openly. At the same time, US and Iranian negotiators worked on a draft that senior White House officials, such as Marco Rubio and J.D. Vance, placed at a “very close” point of agreement.
The agreement would provide, on the Iranian side, for the removal of mines within 30 days and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz “without restrictions”, tolls or harassment for 60 days; on the US side, the lifting of the naval blockade proportionally to the restoration of commercial maritime traffic and the lifting of some sanctions to allow Iran to sell oil and use frozen funds.
This would not be a definitive agreement, since they would have to continue the discussion on the Iranian nuclear issue, which is one of the main points of the differences.
With the drafts in the folder, on Friday the 28th Trump met for two hours in the “Situation Room” of the White House to make a “final determination”, but this did not happen.
Lebanon assaulted and key to the controversy
Trump is seeking the agreement, but it does not depend only on his will but also on the demands of the Iranian fundamentalist regime, and among them there is another decisive demand: the cessation of Israel’s bombing of Lebanon to protect Hezbollah. This is precisely one of the actions to which Netanyahu is appealing as a way of pressuring the US not to reach an agreement and to continue the offensive against Iran. It is a very sensitive point that has generated controversy among the imperialist-Zionist partners.
When last Sunday Netanyahu announced a new wave of bombings in southern Beirut, one of the red lines set by the US in the ceasefire signed between the Lebanese and Israeli governments on April 17, Iran froze the talks until the Zionist offensive ceased.
According to different media, the next day Trump accused Netanyahu of being ” fucking crazy” for jeopardizing the Iran deal and reminded him, “You’d be in prison if it weren’t for me. I’m saving your ass. Now everybody hates you and hates Israel for this.” He then came out to say that they had had a ” productive conversation” and that “Negotiations continue at a rapid pace.”
Beyond the frictions between partners, which are not new, since March the Israeli aggression in Lebanon has caused the displacement of more than 1.2 million people, has caused 3,370 deaths and occupied territory in the south, while extending attacks towards Beirut.
Diplomatic solution to the impasse sought
If the MOU is ratified, it will be presented as an important American diplomatic step and a triumph for Trump. Whether confirmed or not, Trump’s victory does not appear; on the contrary, the agreement would come in the framework of a bogging down of his aggressive and zigzagging policy.
Imperialism did not succeed in overthrowing the regime of the Ayatollahs, Iran did not surrender and the crisis with the Strait of Hormuz caused great damage to the battered capitalist world economy which, if it continues, will become a real disaster with very serious consequences. And the nuclear issue is still pending, an issue on which the Ayatollahs’ regime, at least in words, has been reluctant to give in.
Trump’s only “achievement” would be the opening of the Strait of Hormuz -which we will also have to see what scope it has and who will control it-. What is certain is that the war has already caused an enormous wear and tear on Trump and the internal and external growth of the revulsive to his actions. It must be added that fuel prices have doubled, inflation has skyrocketed and global social unrest due to the situation is on the rise.
More than a grand negotiation, Trump is looking for a diplomatic way out of the big problems that his war adventure has put him in. Trump’s actions are not only plagued by back and forth, maneuvers and lies; they are also plagued by the limitations that political reality places on him and that he is struggling to overcome. For the time being, the agreement supposedly underway is still in limbo as to its final approval by the highest authorities of both parties.
Netanyahu responds to the impact
It should not be forgotten that the great promoter of the aggression against Iran is Israel, therefore, the American stalemate also affects it and exposes Netanyahu to harsh criticism from the Zionist ultra-right that supports him in power and from the very society that questions him.
On several occasions Netanyahu was politically cornered by his actions, faced with the possibility of falling from the government, being tried for corruption and genocide; and he always responded with more violence towards the peoples of the region and, in view of the stalemate in Iran, this time is no exception.
Another element that needs to be mentioned is the new international discrediting impact that the Global Sumud Flotilla has had on Netanyahu and the Zionist regime and enhanced the mobilizations and actions for Palestine.
Advancing in the shadow of a cheating pact
Since the US-Israel-Hamas agreement came into force, the International Socialist League (ISL) has denounced it as a trap to further fragment the Palestinian territory, legitimize genocide, continue ethnic cleansing, strengthen the State of Israel and its criminal forces.
And this has been confirmed with the advances in the annexation of the West Bank, with the establishment of the death penalty for Palestinians, with the continuation of the massacres of civilians – during the “truce” they killed 922 more people and wounded 2,786 others – with the blockade of humanitarian aid and with the aggressive advance of the settlers on the villages.
And, if anyone still had any doubts, they have the opportunity to dispel them: Netanyahu is deploying a strong expansion offensive in Gaza and has ordered the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to increase territorial control of the Strip from 60% to 70%. Complementarily and miserably, he has revitalized the “voluntary emigration” project in order to favor the settlers’ actions.
This implies the continuation of the genocide and ethnic cleansing, as two million people are living in ruins after two and a half years of offensive.
They flee forward by combining agreements and war
Both Trump and Netanyahu “flee forward” in the face of problems by combining war aggressions with pacts and truces. On that path, in Trump’s logic and to try to cushion the bad results of his war adventure in Iran, it cannot be ruled out that he will try to recover with a more direct aggression against Cuba. Netanyahu is already doing so by violently attacking Lebanon and taking advantage of the deceitful “peace” pact in Palestine, in short, he continues to support the Zionist project of “Greater Israel”. How long will they be able to continue to do so? It will depend as much on the results of the aggressions as on the international rejection and the internal situation of mobilization in their respective countries.
Even weakened, the reactionary fundamentalist regime remains in place
Another key element is Iran’s internal situation. It is a fact that the regime has been hard hit by the Zionist-imperialist aggression, with its top leaders exterminated, the current Ayatollah not appearing and the weight of power falling on the Revolutionary Guard. The regime also does not have solid social support as a result of the violent and criminal repression of the mobilized people with whom we continue to show our solidarity. Even so, very weakened and questioned, the reactionary fundamentalist regime has not collapsed or surrendered. Will it be able to hold on? Until when? Will different sectors or divisions emerge publicly? These are answers that reality will give, on the basis that imperialism and Zionism have not defeated it and according to expert assessments, it still has a significant firepower to respond.
With imperialist and Zionist interference there will never be a just and lasting peace.
It is well known that warmongering and negotiation are two sides of the policy of imperialist domination, so no expectations should be placed on Trump’s signing of agreements. In Iran, in Palestine, in the Middle East and in the whole world, a just and lasting peace will never emerge from U.S. imperialist interference; its regional Israeli gendarme will be strengthened.
The streets must be won en masse
It is urgent the worldwide united mobilization against the imperialism that Trump personalizes, in favor of the attacked peoples, be it the Palestinian, Iranian, Lebanese, Venezuelan, Cuban or Ukrainian. Without this implying support for their governments or reactionary regimes, such as that of the Ayatollahs or others, nor falling into campism, but maintaining total political independence.
It is essential to resume, extend and deepen the mobilizations for the cause of Palestine and the defeat of the State of Israel, which remains aggressive along with its accomplices: Israel out of Palestine and Lebanon!
Global actions are of great importance, such as the one promoted by the Global Sumud Flotilla in its mission to Gaza and at the time they led the blockades and solidarity strikes that must be resumed, demanding the release of the 10 kidnapped activists of the Earth Caravan.
A strategic way out for the Middle East
From the LIS we promote the broadest unity of action, on the road to a fundamental solution, the only one that can provide a just and lasting peace, which is the Socialist Revolution in the Middle East, for the birth of a Palestine free from the river to the sea, which is unique, secular, non-racist, democratic, socialist and governed by the workers.
