The situation in Argentina presents novel elements in terms of the political map. The shocks in the regime of coalitions that polarized the country in the last 15 years is a central element. The evolution of the Milei phenomenon and its perspective. The debacle of national capitalism as the material basis of the social state of mind and the crisis of expectations on a mass scale as a gravitating factor. In this global picture, we present the challenges for the revolutionary left and the FIT Unity in the next stage.
By Mariano Rosa
The situation in our country is beginning to show some of the main features of the global and Latin American scene. Global and regional trends are being accentuated beyond the logical national particularities. If we were to summarize the most important elements in the current situation, we could list several.
A leap of the structural economic crisis. At this point, it has a chronic nature, with no possibility of a reformist or moderate exit through the “broad avenue of the center of capitalism.” This model requires a shock of anti-worker bourgeois measures to achieve any stabilization, structural reactionary changes. The impossibility of those above successfully implementing that shock, for now, causes strategic concern in the bourgeoisie.
Irruptions from below in the process of the class struggle. There is no general surge in the working class, popular, or youth struggles: the bureaucratic leaders of the labor movement, in particular, block this possibility. But the episode of the bus drivers of La Matanza installs a type of irruption of protests from the base, which, in a localized way, overpower leaderships and show radicalism and hatred for the regime, for the capitalists. The crisis with the treasonous union leaders and the “everyone has to go” reappear. And once again the working class shows its character as a key subject: two days of protest gravitated more than any social sector in the global situation. This shapes the analysis, orientation and overall politics of the left.
Escalation of the crisis in the political regime. After 2001 and the implosion of traditional bipartisanship, a new bourgeois device appeared, first with Kirchnerism and then with the PRO and JxC, that is, “coalitions:” a regime of coalitions. Without the possibility of party hegemony, there is a regrouping of what was left of the traditional parties post-2001, and thus majority coalitions were structured. Both are in bad shape. The one that governs has a pessimistic electoral prognosis. The main opposition does not process its orientation for what is coming and is “losing oil.” And for the first time, strongly after 2001, a scheme of “third options” appear with Milei and the libertarian current capitalizing on the situation.
Mass discontent. The social temperature does not stop rising. The mood is one of irritation, fed by material conditions (poverty, inflation, and crisis of expectation). In a year where the thermometer of that state of mind is the elections, Milei appears as the most dynamic catalyst phenomenon, as an expression of the “angry vote.”
The right-wing of the capitalist political agenda. The shift to the right in the profile and program of the regime’s political forces deepens. Strategically, they carry a mandate from the big bourgeoisie (corporations, banks, pools) and imperialism: a war plan against the working class and the people, to lower the cost of labor, cut social spending and eradicate rights. At the bottom, there are social sectors that, in some fringes, due to the lack of a clear and powerful option to the left, are confusedly in tune with the rhetoric of “anti-politics” or are seduced by Milei’s “dollarizing” preaching, which is associated with anti-inflationary stability. These are confused and disputed transitions, typical of periods of acute crisis. It is part of a polarization that dynamically has, on the other side, a factor of accumulated force in the mass movement that places limits on the strategic war plan of the capitalists. In this tension and its outcome, not electorally, but in the class struggle, the perspective of the next stage in the country is at stake.
In short, the dominant tendency is uncertainty in all fields, due to economic instability, due to the limits that the relation of forces places on the bourgeois plan, due to the erosion of the majority coalitions and due to the action of the mass movement. So, the central issue is to elaborate hypothetical scenarios to define the possible field of action from the left. The FIT Unity, which had a first electoral test last Sunday in Neuquén, Río Negro and Trelew, showed that there is a conquered space for its political representation, still small but important as an accumulation for what is to come. The seats won in the Neuquén Legislature and in the City Council of the decisive Capital of that province, the results in Río Negro (especially the 6% in Bariloche, which puts the FIT Unity in the race to elect a councilor for the first time in the history of that city), are important landmarks. Each seat is a position for political struggle against the entire regime and from there, the strengthening of the independent action of the working class, women, youth and the poor. They are achievements that we have to take advantage of to organically strengthen our implantation, in the first place, of our MST, in workplaces, schools, neighborhoods and social movements.
The decline of Argentine capitalism
The Argentine capitalist economy in recent years has been shaping up a kind of strategic bourgeois consensus around various elements or features. With more progressive or more right-wing rhetoric, all the significant traditional political currents hold as their horizon:
Austerity through inflation. The devaluations “recommended” by the IMF accelerate it and push the situation to the limit. This mechanism, added to the parasitic behavior of the great price makers, places inflation in a spiral dynamic.
Social regression. This is what some economists and sociologists call the nature of a capitalism that concentrates social wealth at the steepest apex of the bourgeoisie and flattens the income of the working class. As never before, in the last 80 years, a significant part of the registered salaried mass lives below the poverty indicators. The composition of the employed working class today has one third registered, one third under precarious temporary forms of contract and another third in the informal sector. The living conditions of workers are plummeting month to month and this is incubating very strong tensions.
Structural social inequality. 40% poverty (it was 4% in 1975). 10% extreme poverty. Those numbers rise to 55% if we measure them in the segment of children under 14. This chronic panorama is lapidary. Simultaneously, the policy of transferring resources to the big bourgeoisie was reinforced with (Economy minister) Massa’s administration at the worst social moment in the country: the “soy” dollar 1 and 2 cost almost 700 billion pesos. The Argentine model of capitalism is Hood Robin: it expropriates the poor, to transfer the rich.
Reprimarization as a productive matrix. On this point, all fractions of the bourgeoisie agree. We denounce it as extractivism, that is, recurring to the supply of common goods or natural resources, such as commodities (soybeans, Vaca Muerta, lithium, waterways) as a “model” of insertion in the world capitalist division of labor. Neocolonial plunder as a strategy. A kind of “Roca-Runciman pact” 21st century version.
With this general framework, the picture of the current economy has all the variables for a heart attack. The IMF’s road map of austerity to pay debt -which is the basis of the failure of the FdT government, its immediate subordination- is liquefying all the political capital of the ruling coalition. And Massa’s “natural” candidacy is strongly eroding because he fails to calm the situation and adds contradictions. There is panic, or at least a strong concern, of the capitalists because they know that, for a medium-term stabilization, they need a structural shock that will not pass without a monumental clash in the streets. The imperialist line is to push Massa to do all the dirty work now to pave the way for the next government, without having to do everything from the get go.
Crisis of expectation and the third player in contention: update of the political regime
The majority capitalist political forces are experiencing an unprecedented “deliberative” state. The basis is the crisis of hegemony that manifests itself not only in FdT but also in JvC. The ruling coalition suffers a bleeding of its electoral base because the assessment of the voters is based on the economy and the economy is a disaster. And the route they are following is the script of the co-government with the IMF. So, in a sea of uncertainties, the strongest probability seems to be a resounding defeat of the ruling coalition at the national level. For this reason, the “popular demand” operation for CFK began, for this reason there are doubts over whether or not she will be a candidate. Everything is possible, counterpunch and emergency. The “bus drivers – Berni” episode sounded the alarms in the FdT camp: the political crisis escalated to the point of raising questions about their electoral future in the province of Buenos Aires, until now, a “refuge” for Kirchnerism in its “withdrawal” operation in view of an eventual defeat in the presidential elections. Now, everything is in question.
In JxC, which appeared as the logical repository of discontent, the winner by default, there are problems, there is no political unity and they are beginning to pay for that in the polls. To begin with, the dispute between the Macri-Bullrich and Larreta-UCR-Carrió factions has to do not so much with the class strategy, but with the rhythms of application of the program: the shock proposed by Macri-Bullrich has the limits of the social relations of force that appear time and time again. So, there are sectors of the bourgeoisie behind each “tactical wing” of JvC that bet on different orientations. Larreta is no less reactionary, but he seems to read differently the possibility of applying a program of frontal shock against the workers and the people. In this panorama, Milei appears capitalizing on the anger, the discontent and the crisis of expectations with the majority coalitions up to now. He is the “third party in contention” of the political camp of the capitalists.
The Milei Factor
To begin with, as an analysis, the data on Milei is that he confusedly capitalizes on anger, although he also reflects elements of right-wing of social sectors. There are two flagship concepts that he agitates inexhaustibly: «caste» and «dollarization». The former refers to and channels anger. This is so. But, the second, “dollarization” sensitizes in the social imagination a programmatic measure that is mainly associated with stability. Dollar means savings, it is the currency that is worth the most, it is what, in the political discourse, always appears as “the most precious thing and what must be sought.” That is to say: it channels a state of mind, and an aspiration for stability that is not chemically pure, but feeds on the disappointment of the less politicized electoral base of the FdT and of middle class sectors that have already exhausted their experience with JxC. Obviously, his anti-caste political rhetoric appeals to non-politicized sectors of the youth. This is also a hard fact.
However, Milei is not the priority bet of the big bourgeoisie for an electoral replacement. They leveraged him in the media at first, to force a shift of the agenda to the right, install clichés, “taboo” topics, but now he concerns them. They know that what Milei says that he is going to do could end in a social disaster in the streets: there are reserves of struggle accumulated in the people of our country, there is an implantation of the left in various sectors of the mass movement, which would trigger a frontal clash with a direct attack like the one the “liber-fascist” threatens to perpetrate. Having said all this, as in any crisis, by definition, there are imponderables, we cannot rule out the possibility of Milei reaching a ballotage and even winning. In the debacle of the political regime and capitalism, anything is possible. What is also the case, for us, is that an eventual Milei government would be a transitory station for the accumulated anger, since the economic or social aspirations, which can even lead to voting for him, have no chance of being resolved by a program of war capitalism like the one this bizarre character has.
Playing with fire: grassroots trends in the process of the class struggle
There is no doubt that, in a year with a packed calendar of elections, there is a logical mediation between consciousness and the collective state of mind, and direct actions. In fact, due to the crisis of the national coalitions that have no guarantee of winning, the provincial fiefdoms determined their own calendars to ensure the continuity of privileges and impunity. At the same time, this election route has the purpose of channeling social tendencies through this channel: let the vote be the one that defines, with all the distortions that it has, and not the streets. To reinforce this device, to “punish by voting,” and not through struggle, there is the union bureaucracy that buried the possibility of a general strike and unified actions of the labor movement. They are the ones who could pull all the sectors attacked by capitalist austerity as a whole. However, evidently, the depth of the economic wounds, the suffering and the anger, do not wait for elections or general strikes to express themselves when they find a channel. The irruption of the bus drivers of La Matanza showed this, but before it had been the street blockades of neighbors against the collapse of energy provider EDESUR in the middle of the heat wave, or the neighborhood self-organization that burned down narco bunkers in Rosario, or the mobilizations of nurses in the City of Buenos Aires, the neighborhood Health Centers with strikes and mobilizations against a salary cut. To this, we should add important provincial struggles with the same character of “irruptions.” They are anticipatory symptoms of the country we are going to. These are trends that incubate prospects for the near future. Perhaps a general escalation before the primaries is not the most likely, but a resounding defeat of the ruling party, a situation of lack of control in the economy, can end in any scenario. And eventually, the right wing government that takes office trying to apply the “shock” doctrine can open a scenario “a la France.” There is accumulation in our people for that. This preparatory transition then, poses to the revolutionary left, the challenge to stand in the front line in each struggle for its triumph, coordination with others and at the same time, to contribute for the best of that activism organize to fight for an anti-capitalist and socialist solution, as we raise from the MST in the FIT Unity. For the triumph of every just demand and the political-militant development of a left that prepares for the decisive battles to come. With this orientation, the strategic priority lies in the actions and struggles of the working class.
The challenges for a left with a vocation for majorities
The entire context that we presented in this article leads to the main topic: the policy and orientation to strengthen the FIT Unity, from our MST. To begin with, responding in all fields: the class struggle, as a priority, being at the front of each demand to win, and at the same time, always with the objective of strengthening the organic and militant implantation in each process of struggle, and the general influence of the left through our party.
On the other hand, this coordinate has to include the electoral struggle in a combined way in a scenario that is still not completely clear. We think of a type of political campaign that reinforces the ideological confrontation against the expressions of the right that are preparing to govern. At the same time that we explain the basis of the failure of the FdT to interact with sectors of its more progressive base and even self-perceived left. Not by chance, Grabois’s candidacy appears in the FdT landscape: the very old -and failed- thesis of “fighting from the inside,” and renouncing the measures of structural changes that are needed, in favor of a lukewarm program of possibilism. It is an attempt to contain the most critical sectors that are disillusioned with the conservative course and application of the IMF adjustment by the ruling party. Hence the cheap accusations of the pope’s friend that “Trotskyism has no vocation for power.” That Sancho barks, because this Trotskyism that he attacks -poorly- seems to be galloping.
We have to take up a revolutionary use of electoral activity, reaching thousands with our proposals and deep rooted solutions, presenting our main national figures, Cele Fierro and Alejandro Bodart (pre-candidates for president and vice-president, for the MST) and Vilma Ripoll, as as well as the provincial figures that our force has: the legislator Luciana Echevarría in Córdoba, Nadia Burgos, the main figure of the left in Entre Ríos, Jimena Sosa in Santa Fe, the brand new councilor Priscilla Ottón in Neuquén, and many others in our national development as a whole. Because, although the overall electoral result that we may achieve remains to be seen –and that, in the end, is random- it is clear that the revolutionary left has roots in important sectors of the mass movement in Argentina. From our vision, it is charged with the task of accumulating organic political force and general influence with very anti-capitalist and socialist positions, since the stage that is coming, beyond the electoral arena, is going to be determined in our most favorable field: the class struggle.
Within the FIT Unity there are important debates, differences and nuances, based on a very solid program and principles that provide the coalition a strong foundation. Our party permanently insists on the need to give the coalition a broader reach, a larger volume and a character that goes beyond the electoral field: we insist on raising a unitary anti-capitalist and socialist political movement, which could intervene jointly in the general political process, in the labor movement, the youth and the class struggle. That could combine unity of program and principles, with diversity of tendencies within it, that could debate, decide and process all the action of the coalition in a democratic way, from the base, providing channels of participation to thousands of activists who today have the FIT Unity almost exclusively as an electoral option.
This debate is not secondary: the preparation of an alternative that aspires to gain influence in the masses, and have a bearing on the general situation, requires boldly provoking changes in the character of the coalition that we have. We will continue to bring this point of view to the broad spectrum of supporters and voters of the front, as well as to sectors of the disillusioned base of the FdT.
A FIT Unity without forced hegemonism, which defines the representation of its public figures, based on the organic, militant development, national extension and insertion of each force, in addition to the public presence or social networks of some figures. The foregoing includes our vindication of the role of the most popular neighborhoods of the independent piquetero movement as a significant social actor, against certain denialist underestimation that exists in some organizations in the front. The integral whole of these factors makes up the influence and real strength of each party. This is how the MST sees it.
For this reason, it would be important and necessary to promote an open forum for debate from the FIT-U to address all of these issues that make up the strategy, as well as the current tasks to be faced in a united front. A meeting of democratic deliberation, of a fraternal clash of opinions, for an superior synthesis.
And immediately, we have a very important common call. On May 1, the international day of struggle of the working class, we meet again in Plaza de Mayo and in all the squares of the country. For the anti-capitalist, socialist and internationalist left to build tribunes to denounce the current capitalist war plan, for the main working class and popular struggles of the country to be expressed, and to present the terms of a solution for those below in this country.