By: Roberto Franco García

In the midst of the huge uproar caused by the attack, few hypotheses are being considered. There seems to be no doubt about the material perpetrator who was caught immediately: a minor, most likely recruited for money. He must have had accomplices to execute his “job”, but who gave the order?

To answer that question, it is of the utmost importance to foresee what impact the attack will have on the national political process or whether such events may occur again in the immediate future. At the same time, there is another closely related question: who benefits, or is harmed, from such a serious turn of events?

Self-inflicted? very unlikely

Although in cases like these no hypothesis can be ruled out, it is also valid that contrasted with the situation and obvious political or social facts, some hypothesis appear less likely than others.

The physical attacks on politicians – no matter their political alignment- generate a huge wave of sympathy and solidarity with the victim. That is why self-inflicted attacks exist. But self-inflicted attacks, whether previously known and accepted or not by the victim, guarantee low risks to the “victim”. It is only a question of producing shock value in order to take advantage of the benefits of spreading it and creating sympathy and solidarity. This is not the case. The victim is torn, according to medical reports, between life and death.

Order of a “legal” political sector: also unlikely

Despite the huge polarization that exists between the sectors that support the government and those that oppose it, all of them acting within the framework of the political regime and proclaiming to respect institutionality, there is no solid element that shows the possibility that any of these forces, or a few of them, has unleashed the process that led to the attack.

The microscopic residues that remain of the M-19 (despite the fact that Petro waves his flag from time to time or symbolically brandishes Bolivar’s sword) abandoned these nefarious methods decades ago. The processes of deep integration into the regime of the FARC-EP make it possible to consider such an action unlikely. The rest of the so-called “left” that supports the government has never used these methods; even less now that they enjoy the advantages of being “rulers”; which guarantees them enormous benefits.

Clans, oppositions, major or minor states and “guerrillas”: bigger possibility

Colombia is a country in which the most varied and powerful forces intersect; combining legal and illegal activity and “all forms of struggle” to develop lucrative capitalist businesses. It’s not just about the multi-billion dollar coca business. It is about the illegal mining of gold and other metals, smuggling and many other fields.

All these groups, all over the country, were involved, in one way or another, in the Petro government’s offer of “total peace.” This process has many weaknesses and has begun to sink and produce clashes of increasing dimension, as with the processes of the Catatumbo, a few months ago. Until recently, for several weeks, the so-called Clan del Golfo carried out “Operation Pistol”; typical of the most macabre times of drug trafficking groups in previous decades. They have sought to put pressure on the government for a number of concessions and negotiations. All these groups, some more than others, may have an interest in generating anxiety and confusion and carrying out acts that show the failure of the Petro government.

So far, none of these groups has claimed responsibility for the attack on Miguel Uribe, but that cannot lead to ruling out that possibility. These organizations do not always proclaim the authorship of their actions.

A leg sprouts for the lame

In recent days, a violent clash broke out with a criminal group that has enormous influence in the Valle del Cauca; the so-called Inmaculada, from Tuluá, led by “Pipe Tuluá”. The extradition of the top leader of that group to the United States hangs by a thread. In protest, the band has carried out various actions, especially in Tuluá itself, which forced a curfew for several nights. Could not the attack be an open challenge to the Petro government of this gang; by letting him know that he will cause trouble if its highest boss is handed over to the American justice? Isn’t the 90’s pattern of narcos (especially Pablo Escobar) repeated?

No hypothesis can be ruled out. On many of them the government will almost certainly have more elements; even on the latter. The strange thing about this is that there is little or no questions about who gave the order.

Who ends up harmed?

Speaking in political terms – not about who suffered the injuries and is torn between life and death today – there is no doubt regarding that the one that suffers the strongest blow because of this attack is the government of Gustavo Petro.

As soon as the news spread, all over media, analysts, spokespersons of several political forces, representatives of trade unions, institutions, international organizations, governments of other countries, point out as one of the main elements of their statements the need – more directly or indirectly – to cease the “verbal confrontation”, in the “messages of hatred”, in polarization; at the same time, proclaim the defense of “democracy”. And the one who appears as the first target of these allusions is, without the slightest doubt, Gustavo Petro; who was forced to cancel the ”walk” to Paris that started with 70 officials for a week.

In the national political imaginary, the one who appears as a “polarizing” element, who carries out a constant “verbal confrontation”, who “threatens democracy” is the president. Moreover, the projected “decree” of calling for a popular consultation for the labor reform (which has not yet been decreed and it is not clear that it will be decreed) has been pointed out as a real coup d’état attempt, of usurpation of powers that do not correspond to the presidency. It seems that even some of the current Petro ministers have opposed signing this “decree”.

The government has been left on the defensive. Several of his most loyal followers try to differentiate themselves from the presidential language, which appears as provocative, threatening and overly belligerent.

What the government had won in the struggle with the Senate in the bid for labor reform and with its popular consultation plan, it is possible that it is losing outright because of the bullets that Miguel Uribe received, bullets that have hurt politically Petro himself.

Originally published in www.eltrabajadorsocialista.org